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Inflation Trend

1. Keep Cash in Money Market Funds or TIPS

Overweight small growth companies. Underweight small value companies. Foreign Stocks- International diversification can provide a bonus from a weak dollar.

Overweight emerging markets and high growth foreign stocks. Corporate Bonds- Bonds as a category should be under weighted or avoided. As interest rates rise bond prices fall. Within the bond category high quality bonds should be under weighted; high-yield bonds over weighted. Treasury Bills- have one of the highest correlations to inflation of any investment. The upside can be increasing rates and safety not provided in bonds as interest rates rise. The downside is generally low returns. However the nominal yield is very important. Yes they are providing protection against inflation, but be sure you understand when to buy TIPS because sometimes the nominal yield is negative, possibly making them unattractive.

Commodities- Over weight commodities because they have the highest correlation to inflation of any investment. This is the best time of the inflation cycle to own commodities. Gold and Silver can provide spectacular returns during these periods. Real Estate — The best time to own real estate is when inflation is accelerating. Real Estate has some unique problems too. Many people use leverage to buy real estate. Rising interest rates can hurt investors with variable rate mortgages and put downward pressure on real estate prices.

Investing when inflation is increasing requires an asset allocation that factors in rising interest rates but takes advantage of the factors causing inflation. Disinflation occurs when the rate of inflation is decreasing and provides the widest variety of favorable asset allocation choices for investment portfolios. Historically, both stocks and bonds have done well when the rate of inflation is falling. In reality it is usually a combination of these and other unknown factors that cause inflation rates to begin falling from higher levels.

Inflation: Inflation And Investments

If an investor recognizes an inflation trend that is decelerating, and believes it will continue, he should consider the following investment guide for portfolio allocations. Large-Cap Stocks — Overweight quality dividend growth stocks. Underweight stocks with overseas exposure that might be hurt from a rising dollar. Small-Cap Stocks — Small companies usually do well during inflation. Over weight small value stocks, underweight expensive growth stocks.

Foreign Stocks — Markets that sell products to the United States usually do well. Emerging Markets in particular are well positioned to supply goods to a healthy U. Corporate Bonds — Falling interest rates provide a favorable atmosphere for high quality bonds. Treasury and other High Quality Bonds — Safe investment that, as interest rates fall, provides capital gains in addition to paying interest.

Commodities — should be underweighted. Only invest in commodities with growing demand and limited supply. Contrary to what most people think, gold and silver are not good long term investments. Their main advantage is they maintain buying power over long periods of time.

6 Ways to Brace Your Investments for Inflation | Investor Junkie

Falling inflation rates are not the ideal time to own precious metals. Inflation and Asset Classes Inflation has the same effect on liquid assets as any other type of asset, except that liquid assets tend to appreciate in value less over time. Find out how inflation has affected the dollar since , and how the cost of living has changed above and beyond what can Inflation is less dramatic than a crash, but it can be more devastating to your portfolio. Prices tend to rise over time and this inflation can cut into the value of your savings.

Here are some ways you can manage the situation. When calculating your net worth, don't forget to take inflation into account.

Understanding the risks and likely rate of inflation can help investors craft a strategically, well-diversified retirement portfolio. Learn to understand how to plot your portfolio's real rate of return for retirement planning to safeguard your retirement funds against inflation. Learn the underlying theories behind these concepts and what they can mean for your portfolio. Inflation is a natural part of modern life, but there are some time-tested ways to inflation-proof your assets.

Over the long run, a company's revenue and earnings should increase at approximately the same pace as inflation, so the prices of stocks should rise along with the general prices of consumer and producer goods. The exception to this is stagflation ; the combination of a bad economy with an increase in costs is bad for stocks. Not all companies fare the same with inflation- for example a company with a lot of cash will see the value of that cash decrease with increases in inflation. The more general problem with stocks and inflation is that a company's returns tend to be overstated.

In times of high inflation, a company may look like it's prospering, when really inflation is the reason behind the apparent growth.

When analyzing financial statements, it's also important to remember that inflation can wreak havoc on earnings depending on what technique the company is using to value inventory for example LIFO vs. Assuming inflation was positive for the year, your purchasing power has fallen and, therefore, so has your real return.

6 Ways to Brace Your Investments for Inflation

We have to take into account the chunk inflation has taken out of your return. Remember that inflation benefits borrowers at the expense of lenders: This example highlights the difference between nominal interest rates and real interest rates. The nominal interest rate is the growth rate of your money, while the real interest rate is the growth of your purchasing power. In other words, the real rate of interest is the nominal rate reduced by the rate of inflation.


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Inflation is also accounted for when measuring things in constant dollars — for example, measuring wages in constant dollars takes out the effects of inflation.